CoviDiary

Week one of the nationwide lockdown is over. It has passed off in the blink of an eye. Next 2 weeks will raise anxiety levels sky-high. A very unfortunate thing has happened. Many from an ultraorthodox Islamic religious group attending a conference in Delhi have contracted the infection and spread it across the country. Even to Andaman. A blame game is on to fix the responsibility. This has given fodder to fuel a communal angle to the whole affair. How did the government fail to notice this conference, which had even overseas visitors? Meanwhile BMC has issued orders that all those dying from coronavirus will be cremated, irrespective of religion. A fresh debate has opened up on masks. US CDC is thinking of making it mandatory to wear in public. These are simple cloth masks (not surgical masks) and will prevent the aerosols from getting out when a person speaks. It is startling to see the most developed country of the world struggle so badly to overcome the vir

Today I stirred out the farthest after the lockdown was imposed. Wearing this multipurpose bandana that had served me so well in Mongolia last year. Bought rice, dal, toothpaste and imli sauce at the Kirana store, where the staff was more keen on enforcing physical distancing than the shoppers. Quite a few asked for biscuits, which were not available. Stocking up made me feel good. There are reports that government will not extend the lockdown beyond 14 th April. The harsh lockdown appears to have been triggered by an exaggerated understanding of the fatality rate. The fatality rate of 3-4% considered for public policy decisions was based on the confirmed cases. But now there is a sense that many more people are infected but show no or insignificant symptoms. This means that fatality rate has been grossly overestimated. But this hypothesis can be validated only by rapid testing of a large population. If a large number of people test positive without displaying major symptoms,

How the Pandemic will End? This excellent Atlantic Podcast presents 3 scenarios 1) Simultaneous eradication by all the nations - very unlikely 2) Developing herd immunity at a terrible human cost 3) Play the waiting game till a vaccine is developed How the Post-Covid world will look like? The state could get more authoritarian, more intrusive.  Today the narrative has shifted from the virus to the exodus of migrant labour. The visuals are horrific.  France has ordered one billion masks from China.  The  Netherlands  has recalled hundreds of thousands of face  masks  imported from  China  after they were found to be  defective . China has a vice-like grip on the crisis. 

A very disquieting day. Many years ago I had watched, Winter Light, the 2 nd film in Bergman’s Faith Trilogy. The film is a searing questioning of God’s existence. It has a character killing himself because he was disturbed that China is building an atom bomb. I never understood it then. But today it became clear when I revisited the film. My blood boils when I hear about China sitting pretty and getting back to normal after exporting their nasty virus all over the world.  Very conscious about sneezing. Almost afraid that neighbours would have heard it. While clearing my throat with my mouth slightly open, I saw a projectile hitting the wash basin 6 foot away. So 6-foot physical distancing makes sense. The other day I read a tweet that Social Distancing should be rephrased as Physical Distancing to avoid social stigma, which is emerging as a serious concern. I was thinking of an electrostatically charged “bubble” in which we can go out safely into public spaces. And I saw t

Now I want to write about ventilators.  Yesterday the world added 100K cases. Today it is 53K. Is this a significant turnaround? Indian Express delivered free e-paper in my mailbox. HDFC also sent it. Skipped dinner. Just curd and fried Karela. Hindustan Times commissioned this series of pictures. How I wish I had a media pass and could walk all over the city with my camera!

Woke up to an interesting piece of information in Economist Babbage podcast. COVID-19 patients experience a significant loss of small and this has the potential for developing an extremely rapid testing method.  This is how the cases have expanded in the country. I am trying to maintain a spreadsheet.  02-Mar 5 1.67 04-Mar 29 5.80 06-Mar 31 1.07 08-Mar 39 1.26 10-Mar 50 1.28 12-Mar 77 1.54 14-Mar 96 1.25 16-Mar 121 1.26 18-Mar 172 1.42 20-Mar 253 1.47 22-Mar 393 1.55 24-Mar 519 1.32 26-Mar 720 1.39 I see a rising anger against China in the social media. After having exported the virus to rest of the world, they are now sitting pretty. What if they had been fudging numbers all along? The benchmark for constructing templates will get tossed out of the window. Probably they had more unreported fatalities than Italy

What an irony, that the most intelligent species on the planet has locked itself up inside homes and cowers in fear, while all the others enjoy life naturally. It wasn’t like this when we had more contagious scourges like plague and smallpox. Because there were no epidemiologists with “flattening the curve” concepts. With knowledge comes fear. The maths behind Flattening the Curve . Every magazine is taking down the paywalls and making the coronavirus related content free to read. First 100,000 = 66 days Next 100,000 =12 days Next 100,000 = 4 days Next 100,000 = 2 days Watched this sci-fi film In Time in which people stop ageing after 25, but have to buy time subsequently. Time is the currency and people trade with it. And trading is done by a handshake kind of gesture. Intriguing idea. The movie has this line – for a few to be immortal, many must die . I googled to see if it is an original. Apparently it is!   Even as I was thinking about investing, SENSEX surg

G went jogging early in the morning and was accosted by a cop, who sent him back home. I am happy that the state is monitoring. G argued with me that he was alone. I replied – what if everyone thought like you? Our selfishness is not always obvious. I think everyone should act and behave as if they are infected. Have been bingeing on Italian neorealism films since last 4 days. Today I watched Europa 51 (lovely Ingrid Bergman) and Germany, Year Zero. Both directed by Roberto Rosselini. These films are bleak, unrelentingly pessimistic and end without holding up any hope.   In the 2 nd film, a Nazi teacher says - "we must have the courage to allow the weak to be destroyed." This provokes a 12-yo to poison his ailing father. Some days back this thought occurred – infected birds and animals are culled to stop the spread. Economist podcast says that a drug may emerge soon. It will be one that is already in use, so that lengthy clinical trials can be eliminated. E

These are extraordinary times in my life. And also very meaningful. For the first time the transience of life is very palpable. No, I am not afraid of death. But, I don't wish to die from Covid-19. More than me, I am worried about my 84 yo mother. I don't want her to die alone on a hospital bed. And not getting a proper funeral subsequently. That is not the way for a well-lived life to end. This is what is happening in Italy currently. People in 80s are dying, alone, not surrounded by their loved ones. And nobody knows where they are being buried. This tragedy is unfolding not just because of a virus that is 120 nanometer long, but because the hospitals are not capable of handling the deluge of patients. Italy was unprepared. So is rest of the world. And this pattern is likely to be played out in country after country, unless we make personal sacrifices to slow down the spread of  the disease. Lockdown began here today. It was not unexpected after yesterday's Jan